CORK v Kerry in Killarney – it’s the fixture to beat all fixtures for football lovers in the south-west of the country.

Even if many would prefer it was happening in June or July, that will matter little when the ball is thrown in at 1.45pm on Sunday afternoon.

The football people who read this column will need no reminding of Cork’s lack of success in the Munster championship in Fitzgerald Stadium, so we won’t dwell too much on the 31 years since that 1995 win. Let’s focus as much as possible on the present.

Cork travel to the Kingdom with the weight of history against us and the reigning All-Ireland champions to overcome, therefore the general expectation will be for another home win, albeit not without a strong Cork challenge.

Can this be the chance for Cork to break the streak and follow up their McGrath Cup success at the same venue with something rather more meaningful? We certainly hope so.

Perhaps we are letting our heart rule our head once again, however there is a feeling that this could be Cork’s best chance since Fionn Fitzgerald’s late equaliser denied us so late in the game in 2015. We promised not to dwell on the past, so we won’t make any more mention of Padraig Hughes' call to award the home team a decidedly soft penalty to help the reigning Munster and All-Ireland champions of the time back into the contest. Some things are best forgotten, even if it can be hard!

After a number of chastening defeats to the same opposition over the course of the decade since, no more so than the second half in 2021 when I had a front row seat, Cork have been getting closer to turning Kerry over in the last couple of years.

Two years ago at the same venue, Cork got off to a flyer with a Paul Walsh goal and with Brian Hurley very much to the fore, held the lead until the second half. Alas, Seanie O’Shea and David Clifford led the Kerry fightback and they had three points to spare when the final whistle went.

Last year, we had even more cause for regret, when just two points separated the sides after extra-time in Páirc Uí Chaoimh. This was a game that took on a life of its own after Paudie Clifford was sent off and Cork got a real run at the eventual All-Ireland winners. In truth, Cork should have won it after going ahead with less than ten minutes remaining with all the momentum behind them against opponents with only 14 players.

A goal from Seanie O’Shea brought Kerry back to life and extra-time followed. Sean Brady’s red card and another hammer blow of a goal, this time from Joe O’Connor, were the key moments that saw Kerry once more escape to victory.

The 2024 edition was played in beautiful Killarney sunshine while the rain came down last year on Leeside, as it did in 2008 which now stands as the last time Cork beat Kerry in a Munster final. Little did we think coming off the pitch that day that we would still be waiting to do so again nearly two decades later.

Looking at Sunday, both teams come into the game in broadly similar places. League runners up in Division 1 and Division 2 respectively, performances then that could be classed as little more than adequate to qualify for Sunday’s showpiece and injury troubles in both camps. Kerry’s injury list looks the more extensive of the two parties, however the expected absentees for Cork are crucial personnel. Removing Brian Hurley and probably Dara Sheedy from Cork’s forward options leaves Cork looking suddenly threadbare in the scoring department.

Cork’s inside trio of Mark Cronin, Chris Óg Jones and Steven Sherlock have been reliable score-getters this season so far, however Sheedy and Hurley have largely been the greatest additional threats in Cork’s attacking arsenal. Sheedy was outstanding during the league, with his display against Meath amongst the particular highlights. Hurley’s game time has been more limited but he has made an impression in his short times on the pitch. Four points off the bench away to Tyrone, a goal against Meath in Croke Park and three points in approximately 20 minutes before his injury against Tipperary illustrates his impact perfectly.

If that duo are unavailable, and we are assuming Colm O’Callaghan is okay after his cameo against Tipperary, then Cork have a decision to make. Conor Cahalane, Sean McDonnell and Sean Walsh all started in the semi-final but struggled to make an impression. Cahalane and McDonnell were withdrawn at half-time for Hurley and Ruairi Deane, while Walsh gave way for O’Callaghan not too long after and Cork’s improvement coincided with the Eire Óg man’s arrival. All three will be anxiously awaiting the team announcement this week.

Assuming Sheedy and Hurley don’t make it but O’Callaghan is fit to replace Sean Walsh, Conor Corbett and Deane would look best placed to challenge Cahalane and McDonnell for starting spots. I would venture that the experienced Deane will take Cahalane’s place, but McDonnell may be given one more chance to make a better impression at centre-forward. Corbett can be held in reserve to provide impact from the bench in Hurley’s stead, with the underused David Buckley and Cathail O’Mahony further options. The lack of game time afforded to that pair during the season so far unfortunately means they are not as road-tested as they would like to be coming into a potential Munster final appearance.

Goalkeeper and defence will most likely be unchanged from the semi-final and the irrepressible Daniel O’Mahony will once more have the enviable task of marking David Clifford. With Seanie O’Shea among the Kerry injury list, reportedly along with Joe O’Connor, Dylan Geaney, Graham O’Sullivan, Brian Ó Beaglaioch, Paul Murphy, Shane Ryan and possibly Tom O’Sullivan, Cork’s next major decision is detailing who will track Paudie Clifford.

Kevin O’Donovan and Matty Taylor have taken on the task in the past with varying degrees of success, however each is also unavailable for Cork this Sunday. I would hold Cork’s starting positions and task Tommy Walsh with sticking with the Kerry playmaker, while also having the capacity to make him do his own share of defending. If O’Mahony and Walsh can gain any sort of parity in those battles, and most or all of names listed above are confirmed absentees, Cork’s odds of causing an upset will shorten substantially.

More cause for optimism then, but the oddsmakers would be wise to wait until the teams line up behind the parade before deciding exactly the probabilities in this one. I don’t stand to lose as much financially as the bookies if I get this one wrong so I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest this will be the time that Cork turns the tables in Killarney.

Kerry’s injury list is on paper more damaging than Cork’s, and if O’Mahony and Walsh can bring their A-game for the Cliffords and Maguire and O’Callaghan take advantage of Joe O’Connor’s absence around the middle to feed Cronin, Jones and Sherlock, then Cork will be in the hunt in the later stages.

I accept those are sizable ifs, and Kerry are still justified favourites in most people’s eyes, however sometimes we have to disregard history and logic and go with our gut instinct.

The streak will have to end some time and if Kerry aren’t bluffing with the injury updates, this is the best chance in recent memory.

Meath at home awaits either way in the All-Ireland series first round, however it would be much sweeter to enter that game with silverware in the bag as Munster champions. I’m backing the upset. Cork by two points after a cracker. Enjoy the game. Up the Rebels.